Changyun Wang – Investor Sentiment, Market Timing and Futures Returns
Changyun Wang – Investor Sentiment, Market Timing and Futures Returns
Changyun Wang – Investor Sentiment, Market Timing and Futures Returns
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Description
Changyun Wang – Investor Sentiment, Market Timing and Futures Returns
Abstract
The study looked at whether actual trader position-based sentiment index is useful for predicting returns in the S&P 500 index futures market. The results show that large speculator sentiment is a price continuation indicator, while large hedger sentiment is a contrary indicator. Small trader sentiment doesn’t forecast market movements. More reliable forecasts can be provided by the combination of extreme large trader sentiment and large trader sentiment. Large speculators have superior timing ability in the market.
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