[Download Now] A.G.Ferrer – Using Long, Medium and Short Term Trends to Forecast Turning Points (Article)
[Download Now] A.G.Ferrer – Using Long, Medium and Short Term Trends to Forecast Turning Points (Article)
[Download Now] A.G.Ferrer – Using Long, Medium and Short Term Trends to Forecast Turning Points (Article)
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[Download Now] A.G.Ferrer – Using Long, Medium and Short Term Trends to Forecast Turning Points (Article)
There are rules for anticipating business-cycle recessions and recovery in this paper. Business cycles are sums of short-, medium-, and long-term cycles defined for a particular class of unobserved component models. By tying the trend with the low frequencies of the pseudo-spectrum, we can define subjective length trends with specific properties. In this paper, we show how these properties can be used to anticipate business-cycle turning points, not only historically, but also in a true ex-ante forecasting exercise. The procedure is applied to the U.S. after World War II.
A.G.Ferrer used long, medium and short term trends to forecast turning points.
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