NICHOLAS R.LARDY – CHINA’S UNFINISHED ECONOMIC REVOLUTION

There is a fundamentally different interpretation of China’s economic reform offered by China’s Unfinished Economic Revolution. The view that China’s gradualistic approach has served it well ignores the fact that state-owned banks for the last two decades have funneled a large share of sharply rising household savings into what are mostly unreformed, money-losing companies. Several of China’s largest financial institutions are now insolvent. The book argues that China should recapitalize and restructure its banking system in order to avoid a major domestic banking crisis.

The course will be costly in political terms because it will lead to a slower rate of economic growth. Slower growth, continued macroeconomic instability, an inability to meet the expectations of the international community for the opening of its domestic financial markets, and insufficient resources to deal with a rapidly aging population make the alternative less attractive.

The book analyzes the new reform initiatives China has launched in the wake of the Asian financial crisis, suggests additional steps that must be taken, and evaluates the implications for U.S. policy.

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