Random Walk Trading – 1-5 Spread
Random Walk Trading – 1-5 Spread
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The 1-5 spread can expand in a bullish or bearish market under the assumption that the SPX outperforms the OEX. In a bearish market, we expect the OEX to fall more than the SPX (brick and leaf example) causing the spread to expand. In a bull market, the spread expands because the SPX tends to generally outperform the OEX.
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Description
1-5 Spread
The running time is 2 hours and 41 minutes.
Under the assumption that the OEX beats the SPX, the spread can expand in a bullish or bearish market. In a bearish market, we expect the OEX to fall more than the SPX causing the spread to expand. The spread expands in a bull market because the OEX tends to perform better than the SPX.
In bullish trends, the SPX rises at a faster rate than the OEX, and in bearish trends, it falls faster than the OEX.
The general rules are what they are. This doesn’t mean that the spread always expands when the markets are rising or that it always contracts when the markets are falling. If you want to think about this example from that page, you have to forget about the general rules.
They think the market will fall but that the cash spread will likely expand. It can happen, the opposite of the general rule. The general market is not overly bearish. Imagine if one of the largest companies like XOM came out with some news that dragged it along with its sector down.
Some of the largest companies in the world oil companies? The book talks about how the movement of the largest companies has a greater effect on the 100 stocks of the OEX than the 500 stocks of the SPX. The OEX would be falling at a faster rate than the SPX if the market was bearish.
If you wanted to trade a scenario where the market fell but the cash spread expanded, you would want to get long the OEX put spread and short the SPX put spreads. The OEX is falling at a faster rate than the SPX because the cash spread is expanding. The cash spread would expand due to those two things.
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