Economies are complex. Many economic actors behave in rational and irrational ways in the global marketplace. Some degree of economic uncertainty is inevitable because of the number of participants involved in this global exchange, the unpredictability of their actions, and the sheer variety of possible actions.

In one of the most dramatic displays of economic uncertainty in our times, a wave of toxic loans almost brought down the American financial system in 2008. This catastrophe is a lesson in the power of economic forces to defy predictions. We are all at the mercy of economic uncertainty in matters such as these, even though this event may have been exceptional.

• Stock market : Although the stock market has a long-term upward trend, short-term volatility can wipe out a large fraction of an investor’s wealth in a single day.
• Careers : No job is safe from the constant assault of domestic competition, offshoring, innovation, downsizing, government regulation, and other factors.
• Insurance : The types of insurance products have skyrocketed to the point that you could easily spend all of your earnings to cover possible disasters.
• Retirement : Is your retirement secure if you live to be 100? What if you suffer a debilitating chronic disease? How will your nest egg fare if inflation soars?

In smaller ways, uncertainty plagues us. Everyone is familiar with rising prices, but the Internet now makes it possible for online shoppers to be charged more based on their buying history, adding a new level of unpredictability to pricing. When you hire someone for a service, you face a principal-agent problem, in which the person hired may take unethical advantage of your lack of expertise.

It is easy to conclude that nothing can be done with the large and small risks. Understanding how and why storms happen allows you to be prepared. We are in a better position to respond to economic uncertainty if we know what is happening and why.

There are 24 practical and empowering half-hour lectures. The economics of uncertainty. It gives you the tools to deal with risk in every phase of your life, taking the mystery and dread out of uncertainty. Professor Connel Fullenkamp is an acclaimed economist and award-winning teacher at Duke University, where he is Professor of the Practice and Director of Undergraduate Studies in the Economics Department.

Deepen your knowledge of economics.

Professor Fullenkamp shows that the study of uncertainty sheds light on a wide range of phenomena, including:

• financial markets
• business cycles
• inflation and deflation
• free trade
• regulation
• strategic thinking
• career development
• family financial planning

The course introduces fundamental ideas in probability, statistics, and game theory that give deep insight into the world of risk and require only high-school level mathematics. Critical thinking skills are acquired. The economics of uncertainty. There are many applications beyond economics. When you need to find the optimum path to any goal, whether it is selecting your next vacation destination or choosing the best college options for your child, the decision tree approach to problem solving can come to the rescue.

You can enjoy the expertise of a personal advisor.

Governments and large financial institutions rely on teams of experts to steer them. In. The economics of uncertainty. Professor Fullenkamp is your personal advisor, explaining in detail how uncertainty works and providing valuable tips.

• Think critically : Knowing the two types of probability—frequency-based and subjective—helps you judge the claims of people who appeal to probability to convince you to take a particular action.
• Weigh risk vs. benefit : When you have to choose between risky alternatives, start from the least risky choice and decide how much extra risk you can tolerate for a given amount of increased benefit.
• Mix it up : Since you can’t negotiate prices when shopping online, be unpredictable. Don’t always take the first price you’re offered. Put some items in your shopping cart and then log off without buying them.
• Cultivate your career: Companies thrive by having a comparative advantage over their competitors. Do the same in your job by identifying what you do better than most people. Then cultivate that strength.

Learn how to survive and thrive.

Knowing the sources of risk and how much of a threat they pose is the trick to surviving and thriving in an uncertain economy. Professor Fullenkamp has designed and led training courses for bankers and government officials for the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C. The economics of uncertainty. His seminars cover topics such as these.

• Black swans : Popularized by best-selling author and risk analyst Nassim Taleb, a black swan is a rare, baffling event with great impact. Professor Fullenkamp analyzes the 2008 financial crisis in light of this intriguing theory.
• Asymmetric information : Often one party in a transaction has a monopoly on information—for example, in a used car sale. Discover how this problem affects every sector of the economy through adverse selection and moral hazard.
• Compensation : Getting a job done well is often a matter of how the payment is made and what performance incentives are offered. Evaluate the risks and rewards of several approaches to compensation contracts.
• Gambling : Even if you’ve never bought a lottery ticket or set foot in a casino, you gamble every day. Learn how to address economic decisions with a seasoned gambler’s knack for separating good bets from bad.

It is important that uncertainty is built into the world. At times, the economy may seem out of control, but we are living through the uncertainties that have always been with us. Uncertainty can be understood and managed, so there is no reason to despair. An old proverb says that knowledge is power. You will have the necessary background to manage your economic life towards a more secure future after taking this course.

Professor Bio :

Connel Fullenkamp is a doctor. Duke University.

Professor Connel Fullenkamp is the Director of Undergraduate Studies in the Department of Economics at Duke University. Financial economics courses include corporate finance, as well as core courses such as economic principles. He is a consultant for the Duke Center for International Development. Professor Fullenkamp was a faculty member in the Department of Finance at the University of Notre Dame before joining the Duke faculty. Professor Fullenkamp graduated from Michigan State University with a degree in Economics. He was named one of the university’s alumni distinguished scholars after receiving the Harry S. Truman Scholarship. He received his masters and doctorate degrees in Economics from Harvard University. Financial market development and regulation is one of Professor Fullenkamp’s areas of interest. His work has appeared in a number of prestigious journals. He does consulting work for the International Monetary Fund as well as training government officials around the world. The purpose of the finance team is to train central bankers and other officials in financial market regulation, focusing on derivatives and other new financial instruments. Professor Fullenkamp received two awards for his teaching excellence, one from Duke University and the other from the University of Notre Dame. Professor Fullenkamp won the third annual ICFR-Financial Times Research Prize for his paper on international financial regulation.