REX BROWN – RATIONAL CHOICE AND JUDGMENT

Tools were needed to make a better decision.

Decision analysis uses quantitative models of the decider’s factual and value judgments to make a decision. Business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science are some of the industries that use DA. Most resources only show the logic and models, not how these methods can be used in the real world. The book focuses on decision-making tools that can be used immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It doesn’t use mathematics beyond arithmetic.

Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide. Factors such as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge are taken into account in the methods outlined in this text.

Filled with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author’s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than reading. As knowledge unfolds in the real world, it demonstrates how to handle it. In the final chapter of the term project, readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. There is a sample report in the appendix.

The text begins with qualitative structuring and progresses to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise.

• Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives
• Risk analysis and assessment
• Communicating and justifying controversial decisions
• Personal life choices and political judgments
• Adapting decision aid to organizations

The book is an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface.

Who might use this book?

There is a background.

The substance of this book.

Pedagogy.

There are demands on students and instructors.

There are other approaches and materials.

The author has a background.

Acknowledgments.

There is a baby delivery dilemma.

1. Basics and Overview.
2. Uses of Decision Analysis.

Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work in Appendix 2A.

3. Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively.
4. Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice.

A business decision tree example is included in Appendix 4A.

Private example: Study or play?

5. Describing Outcomes.
6. Taking Preference Into Account.
7. Choice Under Uncertainty.

Appendix 7B. There are technical notes.

8. Decision Aiding Strategy.

Appendix 8B. Influence sketches.

9. Aiding the Professional Decider.

Appendix 9B. The case study was about environmental regulation.

10. Assessing and Inferring Probabilities.
11. Eliciting Preferences.
12. Applied Term Project.

Appendix 12B. Student project report.

Epilog.

There are references.

There is a glossary of terms.

Index.

AUTHOR INFORMATION

REX BROWN was trained as a social scientist. He is a senior fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University. He taught decision analysis for statistics, psychology, and management programs at Harvard Business School, Cambridge University, and the London School of Economics and Political Science.

THE WILEY ADVANTAGE

This book takes an innovative new approach to decision analysis that moves away from cumbersome, quantitative methods to give students and professionals decision-making tools that can be applied immediately. The author has forty years of experience in top-level decision consulting and provides methods to solve problems by addressing a given choice several different ways. Simple decision-making models are integrated into the thinking process. All available data and subjective knowledge is taken into account, as well as the use, the user and the organization. Readers are given the chance to use their new skills to solve real-life problems.

The text progresses as readers develop and use more sophisticated decision-making skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise.

• Modelling decision making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives
• Risk analysis and risk assessment
• Facilitating group decision making
• Making personal life choices and political judgments
• Economic analysis of competitive and strategic decisions
• An Instructor’s Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.

Get Rex Brown for Rational Choice and Judgment.

Rational Choice and Judgment, Free Rational Choice and Judgment, Rational Choice and Judgment Torrent, Rational Choice and Judgment Review, Rational Choice and Judgment Group buy is a book by Rex Brown.