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Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan, Second Edition provides an accessible approach for conducting Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. Included are step-by-step instructions on how to carry out Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs, as well as new programs in JAGS and Stan. The new programs are designed to be much easier to use than the scripts in the first edition. In particular, there are now compact high-level scripts that make it easy to run the programs on your own data sets. The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes? rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment. This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business. Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random samplingExamples with R programming language and JAGS softwareComprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis)Coverage of experiment planningR and JAGS computer programming code on websiteExercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishmentProvides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs
Winner of the 2016 De Groot Prize from the International Society for Bayesian AnalysisNow in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors?all leaders in the statistics community?introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice.New to the Third EditionFour new chapters on nonparametric modelingCoverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priorsUpdated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteriaImproved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulationPresentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagationNew and revised software codeThe book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book?s web page.
This book describes the important ideas in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of colour graphics. It is a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone interested in data mining in science or industry. The book's coverage is broad, from supervised learning (prediction) to unsupervised learning. The many topics include neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and boosting---the first comprehensive treatment of this topic in any book. This major new edition features many topics not covered in the original, including graphical models, random forests, ensemble methods, least angle regression & path algorithms for the lasso, non-negative matrix factorisation, and spectral clustering. There is also a chapter on methods for "wide'' data (p bigger than n), including multiple testing and false discovery rates.
Winner of the 2014 Technometrics Ziegel Prize for Outstanding BookApplied Predictive Modeling covers the overall predictive modeling process, beginning with the crucial steps of data preprocessing, data splitting and foundations of model tuning. The text then provides intuitive explanations of numerous common and modern regression and classification techniques, always with an emphasis on illustrating and solving real data problems. Addressing practical concerns extends beyond model fitting to topics such as handling class imbalance, selecting predictors, and pinpointing causes of poor model performance?all of which are problems that occur frequently in practice. The text illustrates all parts of the modeling process through many hands-on, real-life examples. And every chapter contains extensive R code for each step of the process. The data sets and corresponding code are available in the book's companion AppliedPredictiveModeling R package, which is freely available on the CRAN archive. This multi-purpose text can be used as an introduction to predictive models and the overall modeling process, a practitioner's reference handbook, or as a text for advanced undergraduate or graduate level predictive modeling courses. To that end, each chapter contains problem sets to help solidify the covered concepts and uses data available in the book's R package. Readers and students interested in implementing the methods should have some basic knowledge of R. And a handful of the more advanced topics require some mathematical knowledge.
An Introduction to Statistical Learning provides an accessible overview of the field of statistical learning, an essential toolset for making sense of the vast and complex data sets that have emerged in fields ranging from biology to finance to marketing to astrophysics in the past twenty years. This book presents some of the most important modeling and prediction techniques, along with relevant applications. Topics include linear regression, classification, resampling methods, shrinkage approaches, tree-based methods, support vector machines, clustering, and more. Color graphics and real-world examples are used to illustrate the methods presented. Since the goal of this textbook is to facilitate the use of these statistical learning techniques by practitioners in science, industry, and other fields, each chapter contains a tutorial on implementing the analyses and methods presented in R, an extremely popular open source statistical software platform.Two of the authors co-wrote The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman, 2nd edition 2009), a popular reference book for statistics and machine learning researchers. An Introduction to Statistical Learning covers many of the same topics, but at a level accessible to a much broader audience. This book is targeted at statisticians and non-statisticians alike who wish to use cutting-edge statistical learning techniques to analyze their data. The text assumes only a previous course in linear regression and no knowledge of matrix algebra.
Through a series of recent breakthroughs, deep learning has boosted the entire field of machine learning. Now, even programmers who know close to nothing about this technology can use simple, efficient tools to implement programs capable of learning from data. This practical book shows you how.By using concrete examples, minimal theory, and two production-ready Python frameworks?Scikit-Learn and TensorFlow?author Aurélien Géron helps you gain an intuitive understanding of the concepts and tools for building intelligent systems. You?ll learn a range of techniques, starting with simple linear regression and progressing to deep neural networks. With exercises in each chapter to help you apply what you?ve learned, all you need is programming experience to get started.Explore the machine learning landscape, particularly neural netsUse Scikit-Learn to track an example machine-learning project end-to-endExplore several training models, including support vector machines, decision trees, random forests, and ensemble methodsUse the TensorFlow library to build and train neural netsDive into neural net architectures, including convolutional nets, recurrent nets, and deep reinforcement learningLearn techniques for training and scaling deep neural nets
SummaryDeep Learning with Python introduces the field of deep learning using the Python language and the powerful Keras library. Written by Keras creator and Google AI researcher François Chollet, this book builds your understanding through intuitive explanations and practical examples.Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications.About the TechnologyMachine learning has made remarkable progress in recent years. We went from near-unusable speech and image recognition, to near-human accuracy. We went from machines that couldn't beat a serious Go player, to defeating a world champion. Behind this progress is deep learning?a combination of engineering advances, best practices, and theory that enables a wealth of previously impossible smart applications.About the BookDeep Learning with Python introduces the field of deep learning using the Python language and the powerful Keras library. Written by Keras creator and Google AI researcher François Chollet, this book builds your understanding through intuitive explanations and practical examples. You'll explore challenging concepts and practice with applications in computer vision, natural-language processing, and generative models. By the time you finish, you'll have the knowledge and hands-on skills to apply deep learning in your own projects. What's InsideDeep learning from first principlesSetting up your own deep-learning environment Image-classification modelsDeep learning for text and sequencesNeural style transfer, text generation, and image generationAbout the ReaderReaders need intermediate Python skills. No previous experience with Keras, TensorFlow, or machine learning is required.About the AuthorFrançois Chollet works on deep learning at Google in Mountain View, CA. He is the creator of the Keras deep-learning library, as well as a contributor to the TensorFlow machine-learning framework. He also does deep-learning research, with a focus on computer vision and the application of machine learning to formal reasoning. His papers have been published at major conferences in the field, including the Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), the Conference and Workshop on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), and others.Table of ContentsPART 1 - FUNDAMENTALS OF DEEP LEARNING What is deep learning?Before we begin: the mathematical building blocks of neural networks Getting started with neural networksFundamentals of machine learningPART 2 - DEEP LEARNING IN PRACTICEDeep learning for computer visionDeep learning for text and sequencesAdvanced deep-learning best practicesGenerative deep learningConclusionsappendix A - Installing Keras and its dependencies on Ubuntuappendix B - Running Jupyter notebooks on an EC2 GPU instance
This book covers both classical and modern models in deep learning. The primary focus is on the theory and algorithms of deep learning. The theory and algorithms of neural networks are particularly important for understanding important concepts, so that one can understand the important design concepts of neural architectures in different applications. Why do neural networks work? When do they work better than off-the-shelf machine-learning models? When is depth useful? Why is training neural networks so hard? What are the pitfalls? The book is also rich in discussing different applications in order to give the practitioner a flavor of how neural architectures are designed for different types of problems. Applications associated with many different areas like recommender systems, machine translation, image captioning, image classification, reinforcement-learning based gaming, and text analytics are covered. The chapters of this book span three categories:The basics of neural networks: Many traditional machine learning models can be understood as special cases of neural networks. An emphasis is placed in the first two chapters on understanding the relationship between traditional machine learning and neural networks. Support vector machines, linear/logistic regression, singular value decomposition, matrix factorization, and recommender systems are shown to be special cases of neural networks. These methods are studied together with recent feature engineering methods like word2vec.Fundamentals of neural networks: A detailed discussion of training and regularization is provided in Chapters 3 and 4. Chapters 5 and 6 present radial-basis function (RBF) networks and restricted Boltzmann machines.Advanced topics in neural networks: Chapters 7 and 8 discuss recurrent neural networks and convolutional neural networks. Several advanced topics like deep reinforcement learning, neural Turing machines, Kohonen self-organizing maps, and generative adversarial networks are introduced in Chapters 9 and 10.The book is written for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners. Numerous exercises are available along with a solution manual to aid in classroom teaching. Where possible, an application-centric view is highlighted in order to provide an understanding of the practical uses of each class of techniques.
This textbook introduces linear algebra and optimization in the context of machine learning. Examples and exercises are provided throughout the book. A solution manual for the exercises at the end of each chapter is available to teaching instructors. This textbook targets graduate level students and professors in computer science, mathematics and data science. Advanced undergraduate students can also use this textbook. The chapters for this textbook are organized as follows:1. Linear algebra and its applications: The chapters focus on the basics of linear algebra together with their common applications to singular value decomposition, matrix factorization, similarity matrices (kernel methods), and graph analysis. Numerous machine learning applications have been used as examples, such as spectral clustering, kernel-based classification, and outlier detection. The tight integration of linear algebra methods with examples from machine learning differentiates this book from generic volumes on linear algebra. The focus is clearly on the most relevant aspects of linear algebra for machine learning and to teach readers how to apply these concepts.2. Optimization and its applications: Much of machine learning is posed as an optimization problem in which we try to maximize the accuracy of regression and classification models. The ?parent problem? of optimization-centric machine learning is least-squares regression. Interestingly, this problem arises in both linear algebra and optimization, and is one of the key connecting problems of the two fields. Least-squares regression is also the starting point for support vector machines, logistic regression, and recommender systems. Furthermore, the methods for dimensionality reduction and matrix factorization also require the development of optimization methods. A general view of optimization in computational graphs is discussed together with its applications to back propagation in neural networks. A frequent challenge faced by beginners in machine learning is the extensive background required in linear algebra and optimization. One problem is that the existing linear algebra and optimization courses are not specific to machine learning; therefore, one would typically have to complete more course material than is necessary to pick up machine learning. Furthermore, certain types of ideas and tricks from optimization and linear algebra recur more frequently in machine learning than other application-centric settings. Therefore, there is significant value in developing a view of linear algebra and optimization that is better suited to the specific perspective of machine learning.
Data-driven discovery is revolutionizing the modeling, prediction, and control of complex systems. This textbook brings together machine learning, engineering mathematics, and mathematical physics to integrate modeling and control of dynamical systems with modern methods in data science. It highlights many of the recent advances in scientific computing that enable data-driven methods to be applied to a diverse range of complex systems, such as turbulence, the brain, climate, epidemiology, finance, robotics, and autonomy. Aimed at advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences, the text presents a range of topics and methods from introductory to state of the art.
This textbook is aimed at newcomers to nonlinear dynamics and chaos, especially students taking a first course in the subject. The presentation stresses analytical methods, concrete examples, and geometric intuition. The theory is developed systematically, starting with first-order differential equations and their bifurcations, followed by phase plane analysis, limit cycles and their bifurcations, and culminating with the Lorenz equations, chaos, iterated maps, period doubling, renormalization, fractals, and strange attractors.
This book is a comprehensive introduction to quantitative approaches to complex adaptive systems. Practically all areas of life on this planet are constantly confronted with complex systems, be it ecosystems, societies, traffic, financial markets, opinion formation and spreading, or the internet and social media. Complex systems are systems composed of many elements that interact strongly with each other, which makes them extremely rich dynamical systems showing ahuge range of phenomena. Properties of complex systems that are of particular importance are their efficiency, robustness, resilience, and proneness to collapse.The quantitative tools and concepts needed to understand the co-evolutionary nature of networked systems and their properties are challenging. The book gives a self-contained introduction to these concepts, so that the reader will be equipped with a toolset that allows them to engage in the science of complex systems. Topics covered include random processes of path-dependent processes, co-evolutionary dynamics, dynamics of networks, the theory of scaling, and approaches from statisticalmechanics and information theory. The book extends beyond the early classical literature in the field of complex systems and summarizes the methodological progress made over the past 20 years in a clear, structured, and comprehensive way.
